Being as Dreamhack Winter's BEAT IT tournament is the last time anyone will see Na`Vi, SK and AGAiN all compete for the same title it also marks a chance to see the different matchups amongst the three play out in the pressure of the playoffs. Can SK repeat their ESWC final success against Na`Vi? Was AGAiN's SEC final a fluke? Can AGAiN handle this SK lineup in a real Bo3?


Trio (f0rest, GeT_RiGhT and Delpan) vs. Trio (markeloff, Edward and starix)

SK Gaming vs. Natus Vincere (quarter-finals or final)

SK come into Dreamhack Winter as the best team in the world, but not conclusively. Their win in the final of ESWC was impressive, emphatic and historic, but it wasn't enough to make the Swedish titans clear favourites for this event. SK feels like the team with the best odds against all of the weaker teams who make up the dark horse category, but with very even odds against their elite level rivals from Poland and Ukraine. SK's victory in Paris doesn't tell us SK are better than Na`Vi, hell the Eastern Europeans looked like a lock to take map one, inferno, multiple times before overtime arrived.

SK also has a series win over Na`Vi from the previous Dreamhack event to their name, but that saw Na`Vi somewhat victims of their own hubris due to keeping nuke in the map pool. The third map of that series, on inferno, once more saw Na`Vi painfully close to taking the map from the Swede's grasp. Then at GameGune and e-Stars the two teams only clashed in single map affairs on nuke, which skews the matchup in SK's favour.

The second series played between the two teams, chronologically, came in the quarter-finals of SEC, where Na`Vi took it in two maps. So while SK is definitely riding high and can come into this event knowing they can beat Na`Vi there are still seeds of doubt which make the Ukrainians very dangerous for SK.

Against Na`Vi it comes down to the maps I think. Assuming the standard system of throwing two is in place at this tournament Na`Vi can throw nuke and forge, eliminating their weakest map vs. elite teams and a map SK, and teams with a lot of strong aimers in general, look strong on. Where it gets interesting is SK's picks, which are less obvious. I would expect them to throw out dust2, since Na`Vi are one of the best on the map.

Even though SK are a strong train team I would not be surprised to see them throw the map, as they did in the ESWC final, on the basis that it is Na`Vi's best map. Even with the Ukrainians' loss to fnatic on train last weekend it's too dangerous to gamble and give them their best map, bearing in mind they are likely the best train team of all time. If I was SK those would be my two maps to throw, dust2 and train, but there is another factor to consider: tuscan.

SK had made it a point to improve their tuscan and RobbaN even stated that he didn't want teams to know they would throw it. That seemed to be working out fine against other teams but at SEC tuscan was a big part of SK losing the series to Na`Vi, as the Ukrainians smashed SK's CT defenses to pieces. SK has a strong T side of their own on the map but the question comes down to their confidence on this map in my opinion. If they have any doubt in their mind that they can win on tuscan vs. Na`Vi then likely they throw this map, hoping they can simply outplay Na`Vi on train with strength of their own. That wouldn't be a bad move either.

So the maps left to play will likely be inferno, train and mirage or inferno, tuscan and mirage. I have train going to Na`Vi because they are as close to the perfect train team as you can get in my book. Their CT side is godlike and their terrorist side has just enough grind in it to get them to 16. In scenarios where they go T first and don't get many rounds they are one of the only teams of all time who, last weekend aside, seem unphased at facing a sheer wall to climb on the strong side under pressure.

On inferno I think the map is very close but SK get the edge. We already know what Na`Vi does on this map, it's practically set in stone. The Ukrainians have a good but not amazing CT side and then on T side they have a default into the A site from house and balcony which is very effective. The problem for the Ukrainians comes when they are unable to establish any B attacks, as it makes it obvious they will lean on their default into A. When that happens the CTs rotate a man into the A site and the default gets harder and harder to successfully execute into a round win. In this scenarios Na`Vi are really up and down. They have had key moments where they pulled it all together to come through regardless, but they have also had times when they fell short and didn't get there.

SK can force them into that position if they can limit Na`Vi to 9 rounds as CT, being as SK have one of the best inferno small sites players in the world in face. So we know what Na`Vi will likely do and what the have to do. The X factor is how strong SK's T side is. More than 6 T rounds for SK and they have the CT skill to put themselves in a winning position.

On tuscan I give Na`Vi the edge simply because I think they are underrated as a CT team on that map. It's one of the maps where starix and Zeus become much more effective players than some of the other maps in the pool. tuscan will all come down to SK's CT side for me, if they can get an AWP rolling one site then a win is possible but if Delpan is invisible then I think it's really tough for SK to beat Na`Vi on this map. Mirage hasn't been played enough by either yet to really gauge how they'll face off on it for my money, so I feel like it's a straight tie for now.

So when you add it all up I have the series going into three maps if train/tuscan and inferno are the first two maps, with the decider as a toss-up. So for the fans this is the series to watch out for, and would make for a hell of a final. What would be a shame is if we got it in the quarter-finals and one of the teams is out of the tournament by lunchtime on Saturday. After seeing both SEC and BEAT IT Russia put one of the tournament favourites out before the top 4 that's a prospect I really don't relish for eithe team.


Nine players with nine world championships between them

Natus Vincere vs. AGAiN (semi-finals or final)

When Na`Vi play AGAiN the Ukrainians are always the favourites in my book. Sure the Poles have a style of play which can be successful against Na`Vi in a Bo3 even when Na`Vi's game is on, something very few teams can say, but most of the time Na`Vi manage to emerge victors. It's a problem that stems from a number of factors and I think to explain it's best to look at it from AGAiN's perspective and see why they lose and why they win against their fellow Eastern European monsters.

Firstly the maps tip in Na`Vi's favour when these two teams play. AGAiN are likely to throw mirage and tuscan. Na`Vi are will throw nuke and likely forge. Those picks aren't for certain since AGAiN stubbornly allowed tuscan to be played at ESWC, but I think losing on it there and then being forced to lose on it at BEAT IT Russia should have brought AGAiN to their senses. tuscan is for them is like nuke for Na`Vi - sure they can be decent on it and win vs. inferior teams but why would they want to play it vs. elite teams who are the best in the world on it?

It's possible Na`Vi could throw dust2, if they are afraid to see a repeat of the SEC final again, but I don't think that's the right move for them as that was not a game AGAiN can play every time successfully and Na`Vi likely don't want to let a team like AGAiN, who are one of the best offensive teams ever, run over them on forge.

So that leaves a pool of train, dust2 and inferno. Firstly the prospect of seeing those three maps has me riled up into an immediate priapic state of excitement purely off of fond memories of past series but secondly gives Na`Vi a nice edge in the series. On train it's a battle of the ages as the world's best train T side team (AGAiN) takes on the world's best train CT side team (Na`Vi) in a true test of nerves.

When both teams are playing at their peak on train Na`Vi have to take AGAiN's best shot when they are CT and then grind their maximum amount of rounds out as terrorists, knowing their CT side is nowhere near as safe as vs. anyone else. For the Poles they know they can win when they are on fire as terrorists but when their terrorist game is off then they fall to Na`Vi's incredible CT sides just like everyone else. SEC was an example of an on fire AGAiN pulling out a win against a Na`Vi team playing well but the IEM V WC and ESWC first maps were an example of Na`Vi having just too much on the CT side for the Poles if AGAiN doesn't bring the heat on the offensive side. Against most teams AGAiN is a favourite to win 7 rounds at least as T, but against Na`Vi the pressure is at its peak because they know even 11 rounds as CT might not be enough.

On dust2 SEC can easily cloud our minds because a lot of that AGAiN CT side seemed like something out of one of TaZ's dreams, but looking at the map as a whole the edge goes to Na`Vi still. I do think AGAiN will always make a game out of it on dust2 vs. any elite team, but they don't have a consistent answer for a markeloff with an AWP. If they can push up as CT in the same fashion again and dominate the Ukrainians then hats off to them for discovering a new style. If they can't though it's going to take a blood and guts drawn out battle for the Polish side to take dust2 I think.

That leaves the third map as inferno and again I have Na`Vi with the edge. AGAiN have always suffered from being unsure of how to play inferno vs. the elite teams. It's not even that they're a bad team on the map, it's that they don't have a set plan that they know will work every time on both sides. They also don't use aggression well as CTs and it costs them quite often. On inferno AGAiN are too aggressive or not aggressive enough, never the middle ground. They either take to play passive reactive CS and hope their aim holds and they can win the 2v2s/2v3s on retakes or they push up and get the kill but then continue to push and lose the man advantage.

You very rarely see AGAiN push up, get the kill and then pull back for a 5v4 or 4v3 advantage. Likewise when they lose men early they don't push aggressively enough in those rounds or later rounds to pressure the opponents' offensive tempo or potentially benefit from flanks.

Now Na`Vi are no superstars on inferno either. It's always been a troubled map for them, as the section in the matchup vs. SK explains. That said I feel like their CT side is more reliable than AGAiN's, at least when they use markeloff in B on his own a lot. Assuming markeloff can AWP and lock off that banana then you'll see AGAiN find the same trouble Na`Vi finds against SK: if they can't establish B early then they rely on trying to force one strat at A. I think inferno all comes down to AGAiN in this matchup. If they can get their CT timing down right in terms of aggressive pushes and rotations then I feel like they can beat Na`Vi, but otherwise I think Na`Vi have the edge.

So ultimately I give all three maps to Na`Vi, but in differing fashions. None are decisive but train is a slight edge, dust2 is a slight edge and inferno is a bigger but not large edge. Hence why it gets tough for AGAiN to beat Na`Vi. I think for them to beat Na`Vi they must win map one and they probably have to dominate map two. If they let it go to three then it's difficult for the Poles to get the better of this matchup in my book.

Whatever maps these two play, assuming they meet, at the very least I hope for a train battle as those two teams in peak form battling each other on train produces masterpieces of CS.


f0rest vs. NEO - The neverending war of the greatest

SK Gaming vs. AGAiN (semi-finals or final)

When I break down these teams separately I think SK as having the best skill of any team, decent teamplay and decent tactics. When I break down AGAiN I see good skill, good teamplay and decent tactics. Put those two together and you get a game series of CS because the factors correspond well. Tactics-wise neither is ever going to light up the world and amaze us like an ave-led mTw might, but both will bring a satisfactory level framework which they can get wins out of vs. the elite level teams.

SK has the most skilled lineup in the world but the truth is you don't need to have every position be stacked with skill to win in CS, so for all the times you do blow the other team away there are times when you don't get anything extra out of that insane talent pool because it's overkill. AGAiN has enough skill that they can win vs. all of the elite teams. Their formation should instantly remind one of Na`Vi, whose team was apparently based upon the blueprint of the previous, 'golden five', lineup.

They have the two players who carry the load in NEO and TaZ to correspond to markeloff and Edward. In pasha they have the third player who can have games where he is the best player in the lineup, a role starix has made his own. Then they have the tactician whose skills are nothing to write home about but who plugs his game into their style of play so that he becomes effective. Finally there's the player forum members constantly suggest should be cut but whose clutch performances often times put them over the top or keep them in close games: loord and ceh9.

In CS you don't need four or five amazing players skillwise, usually two can get you to a high level and 2.5 will allow you to consistently compete for the major titles. AGAiN has that 2.5 amazing skill players, even if in their case it's not split up like Na`Vi [markeloff = 1, Edward = 1, starix = 0.5] but more skewed to NEO [NEO = 1.25, TaZ = 0.75, pasha = 0.5]. That does become a downside of AGAiN, as opposed to Na`Vi, as if NEO plays badly it becomes practically impossible for them to beat elite teams in a series. Meanwhile in theory Na`Vi could have one of Edward and markeloff play poorly and squeak through due to the load being more evenly shared out.

When it comes to teamplay AGAiN has better teamplay than SK in the sense that they work very well as a single unit and their unspoken understanding of how to play off each other is a major strength that SK can't boast. Still with SK's skill pool they don't need as much teamplay, so when they have some they can be more dangerous to lesser teams and it evens out vs. teams like AGAiN and Na`Vi who have better teamplay.

As far as maps it's very difficult to know which maps these teams want to throw. What makes this a fun matchup is that they aren't as clearly good or bad on any of the maps as when each plays Na`Vi. I imagine SK would probably want to throw dust2 and possibly train. dust2 because I think e-Stars is probably still a bad memory and train because of how good the Poles are on the terrorist side. AGAiN would be wise to throw tuscan and inferno in my opinion, shoring up the rest to give themselves a decent chance to win the series.

Assuming the maps do that way we are left with nuke, mirage and forge. Firstly that's a fucked up map pool because two of those maps are shit. Secondly that's also why it's very tough to say which maps will be thrown, because even though I think my reasoning was valid it's hard to imagine either team wanting to gamble on both forge and mirage for their tournament life. So let's do this analysis a little differently. First of all I'll do those maps and then I'll comment on the other possibilities.

On nuke I think it's a toss-up. AGAiN can be so sparkling on terrorist side that I could lean in their direction but all the same I think SK's CT side is likely to be really strong when they play them on it. And of the two it's much harder to rely on offense to get you through on nuke. Mirage and forge I can't say that much about because these maps just haven't been played enough and especially not in this matchup. I could see SK outskilling AGAiN on forge as T but then I could also see AGAiN having a good T side and winning quite a few clutch situations in the B site. So for those three maps it's probably a tie, though SK might have an edge on mirage.

Let's imagine train or tuscan is played. On train I think AGAiN are the favourites and SK need to go wild on CT side to get the win. On tuscan I think it's the one map where SK is a solid favourite and AGAiN will have problems with them.

In summary for this matchup I would say that SK vs. AGAiN is the most even matchup across the entire map pool and also a great example of strengths in the different categories which makeup a CS team going up against each other.


How do you think the three matchups would go down and which other potential playoff matchups get your juices flowing?

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