Dreamhack Winter is here and the BEAT IT tournament will be the last time in 2011 that we see a stacked field go at it for a nice chunk of change. With all three elite teams in attendance this event is anyone's for the taking and there are enough dark horses and X factors out there that even the group stage results are far from the usual going-through-the-motions.

Will SK stay on top in Sweden? Is this event Na`Vi's final hurrah in 2011? Can AGAiN bounce back from a BEAT IT Russia without a top 4 finish to beat either of their rivals? M5, mouz, fnatic, Anexis, ESC, Lions and eSahara all wait in the wings hoping to upset the big names but who will make good on the promise of their threats?


Group A
SK Gaming
Anexis eSports
Electronic Sahara
ColdGame

SK Gaming - Studs surrounded by dark horses

SK are the overwhelming favourites to win this group and should get it out of it one way or another, being as them losing to both dark horses is highly unlikely. It's also favourable for the Swedes that the group they are paired with for the quarter-finals is also stacked, meaning even if SK were to be upset it's possible the favourites in Group C, Na`Vi, could also be taken down, thus giving SK the best quarter-final matchup. All of that aside we have to assume the favourites will win each match, that's kind of the point of having them as favourites.

If SK wins Group A and Na`Vi wins Group C then SK will play the second placed team in Group C in the quarter-finals. If that is fnatic then SK seem like huge favourites to reach the semi-finals, being as they have dominated that matchup since the Delpan lineup arrived. If it is Moscow Five they play then SK are still favourites, but it is more like 60-40 in my book. Moscow Five is definitely the strongest dark horse vs. SK, but SK will be able to throw both tuscan and forge if they want. That would leave inferno as the only major danger for them vs. the Russians.

The Russians have a lot of aim but then so do SK, so that matchup would come down to the mindset of the Russians. Often times they get a break/lead and beat themselves with bad decisions. Until that stops it's tough to predict they'll win a series vs. SK, even if they can win a map.

If SK gets through either of those two teams then they'd have a very good chance at making the final itself. Their semi-final opponent would be Lions or mouz. Both are good matchups for SK, especially considering AGAiN and Na`Vi are likely to be in the other semi-final. I don't see any Swedish team beating SK in a series without it being a big upset and a lot of things going wrong for SK. The most interesting opponent for them of this choice would be mouz I think. Skillwise SK has them covered but gob b's tactical mind can make get mouz into this series. He doesn't have as much as to work with as RobbaN does but then again he can work what he has to a more advanced degree. With ave out of CS and ArcadioN seemingly neutralised I think gob b is the clear second best tactician in the world, if not the best. All that said I still think SK are 65-35 or 60-40 to beat mouz. So in short I predict SK will make the final as long as they win Group A and Na`Vi wins Group C.

Anexis eSports - The trace factor looms large

Anexis were already a team I felt people overlooked. While their results haven't been impressive their team has looked good in matchups vs. the majority of teams out there I feel. They are a team which can take one map off anyone I think, which not only makes them a threat here but means they will likely be playing three map series if they make the playoffs. In terms of matching up I feel like they have a wider range than fnatic, WinFakt and DTS do against the other dark horses and the elite teams. That said Anexis are coming into this tournament with a huge X factor that goes by the name of trace. I've made no secret of the admiration I have for trace's game and I think he has been a permanent member of the world's top 5 individual players since mid 2010. He is capable of helping Anexis cause an upset in the playoffs but the problem lies in how good Anexis' teamplay will be.

trace is standing in for a Nuggi who had been getting rave reviews for his performances recently. Taking out an integral part of your team for a much better player doesn't necessarily mean you have upgraded. What you gain in skill you can easily lose in teamplay and tactical execution. Throw in that while some might feel mTw's lack of firepower held trace back at times you also have to consider that their tactical execution, team structure and teamplay was also very very high level and meant that trace knew exactly what to do, where to go and where his team-mates would be. Throw in a little uncertainty in any of those areas and his impact might not be the world beating performance fans expect. All the same I have Anexis pencilled in to get out of this group in second.

In the playoffs the best matchup for Anexis in the quarter-finals would be fnatic, but that would likely only come about if fnatic beats M5 and Na`Vi, since SK will likely win Group A. Against fnatic I think Anexis is 45-55 and it will take a big performance from trace, or a big underperformance from fnatic players, to see them through. Against Na`Vi I would feel sorry for trace once more running up against the only team in the world he doesn't shine against. Against M5 I think the Russians are 60-40 favourites and will outskill the Danes as a whole.

Electronic Sahara - Can mSx make eSahara relevant again?

Has anyone in the dark horse category ever teased as much as eSahara has done and yet never delivered even once? They have single map wins but when it counts they never come up with the goods, and indeed even sometimes lose vs. lesser teams. At least that was the M.O. of the previous eSahara lineups. This new lineup sees them in a similar position to Anexis, bringing in their country's most skilled player of all time to an already established but not strong team. mSx is incredible and is a player capable of playing well even when his team-mates play badly.

With all of that said a number of his team-mates are living off names they earned years ago but haven't backed up internationally for some time. mSx can get this team out of this group on his own, being as in theory it only would take a win over Anexis, but to go anywhere in the playoffs means sixeR has to show up bigtime and drizzer can't fumble even once.

I have eSahara down as likely to come third in this group but I'm really not sold either way and I think it's quite close to a toss-up as to whether they finish second. In the playoffs I don't like their chances against anyone, and even against fnatic I feel like they would still lose the series.


Group B
AGAiN
ESC Gaming swe
Antwerp Aces
hatersG0nnahate

AGAiN - The Poles can ease into this one

AGAiN are enormous favourites to win this group. Not only is ESC the only team capable of beating them but ESC has messed around with their lineup too recently for me to have any confidence in that matchup. Throw in that this AGAiN team has been good in group stages and I think AGAiN are a lock to win this group and book a spot in the quarter-finals. Once they get there they have an easier first round matchup, being as they dodge both Na`Vi and SK, but somehow still managed to draw teams who matchup well against them: mouz and Lions.swe.

Regardless of which they play I think AGAiN are the favourites for the series, and to make the semi-finals. Their problem is that both mouz and Lions.swe have enough individual skill that neither team fears AGAiN's skill level. Throw in that both teams have smart tacticians and it'll be a good chance to see where AGAiN's level is at. mouz have the tactics to beat AGAiN and the teamplay to make it a close series but I still feel like AGAiN have the edge. I won't throw my confidence on mouz purely off of that ESWC 3rd place decider because I feel like psychologically the two teams were in very different places.

mouz were never expected to be capable of winning the tournament so going into that decider they had nothing to lose. If they won then they moved up a spot to 3rd and ahead of one of the elite teams in the world, while if the lost they were still a solid 4th at one of the year's majors. Meanwhile AGAiN, much like any elite team, had expectations on at least making the final, so when they couldn't even do that their ability to focus 100% in the 3rd place decider disappeared for good. Props to mouz for taking it down but let's not fool ourselves: things could be very different in a proper playoff series.

Lions.swe matched up really nicely against the Poles at ASUS Summer and even spurred AGAiN to make some changes to their inferno setup. That said I think the chance to beat them was at its best in that game in Kiev, this time around is a different ball game.

ESC Gaming swe - Back to square one

ESC Gaming haven't made the same kind of mark on me they seem to have on others. Their GameGune performance was impressive but it featured a ringer. Throw in their second best player, kalle, and their tactician, pronax, leaving them and returning and I think they haven't progressed at all. Their ESWC lineup was woefully bad and now they have to prove themselves all over again. Still they have some punching bags in Antwerp Aces to warm up on for the playoffs. If they can get Lions in the playoffs them it is possible to proceed but MODDII has to really be the man for ESC to make any impact on Dreamhack Winter. Against mouz I feel like they get handled by a small but comfortable margin.


Group C
Natus Vincere
Moscow Five
fnatic
The Elder Gods

Natus Vincere - Made to work for it early

BEAT IT Russia no doubt shocked many, myself included, as Na`Vi managed to lose a three map series to fnatic that featured dust2 and train. When that third map rolled around I certainly did not anticipate that fnatic could deny Na`Vi's grinding T side game and then sweep them before the Ukrainian defensive engine had warmed up. Once that happened the loss to DTS in the 3rd place decider was actually something I expected. I've already mentioned in the AGAiN section my philosophy on elite teams facing non-elite teams in those kinds of matches. Add in that the series was always going to feature inferno, a map on which DTS' players have shown themselves to be particularly strong against Na`Vi a number of times, and a loss to their rivals seemed on the cards for 2010's team of the year.

With all of that said Na`Vi did beat AGAiN, their loss to fnatic seemed uncharacterisic and their DTS series looked like they were mentally wounded already. I still feel like Na`Vi is the second best team in the world in terms of how they matchup vs. everyone else and their chances of winning the tournament. I even have them as slight favourites when they face SK, as the section about playoff possibilities explains, so with the right draw they might even be favourites for the tournament in my book.

This is the worst group draw possible though for Na`Vi. M5 is very capable of beating them on one map, assuming it isn't train, and fnatic are one of the few teams who can muster confidence against them despite not being the better team. That said I expect Na`Vi to win the group and thus get eSahara or Anexis in the playoffs. Anexis I think would be a reasonably easy matchup that they could take in two maps. eSahara is a little trickier but I think it asks too much of mSx and thinks too little of Na`Vi's level to imagine the Ukrainians won't make the semi-final if they win Group C.

Moscow Five - Matchups galore in store

It goes without saying that M5 come into this tournament with heat on them thanks to their BEAT IT Russia victory. Still I think it's worth analysing how that came to be for a moment to figure out M5's expectations for this event. Once BEAT IT Russia was done I commented to someone that M5's MVP of the tournament was actually the fnatic team, since the Swedes had provided pretty much the only possible route for the Russians to be favourites in the final. Firstly the Swedes beat them in the group stage, in a result some may wonder about the legitimacy of bearing in mind M5 secured a bracket with no AGAiN or Na`Vi in it by losing.

After wins over WinFakt and DTS, the latter being a war, the Russians reached the final only to find themselves facing the very same fnatic. Thanks to Na`Vi beating AGAiN and fnatic beating Na`Vi Russia's best found themselves actual favourites to win the tournament, which they did. Their finals performance saw them show up with the typical amount of raw skill on display, which can overpower any team for stretches, and crucially the Swedes were unable to punish M5 enough when the Russians made their, also typical, mistakes. That series was a good benchmark for M5's level to my mind. They can hang with anyone in the tournament but the teams who are better than them are the ones who make them pay for their mental slipups. On top of that if their aim is even slightly off then they have no chance of even making top 3.

In this group I think M5 will beat fnatic and lose to Na`Vi, though both matchups are close. fnatic just don't have the firepower to be favourites against M5 if the Russians don't help them out by making mistakes. Na`Vi can lose to M5 but I think when the two teams play it is tough for the Russians because they struggle to close games out in the clutch, while Na`Vi count that as a strength.

In the playoffs M5 will likely play SK in the first round, which signals an exit for them in my book. SK is the best of the elite teams for them to face but even so they can lose that series purely by being outskilled, something no other team can claim against the Russians. If somehow M5 gets to play Anexis or eSahara then I have them as favourites for those series.

fnatic - Put to the test to even progress

BEAT IT Russia was very much the resurrection of fnatic in terms of relevance. Their IEM VI Guangzhou result was a tournament win but it also saw them facing none of the elite teams, and beating mouz on the very streaky forge. If the two teams played on any other third map I have mouz as a slight favourite in that case. At ESWC the Swedes were obviously, and justifiably, humiliated with their inability to get out of the group stage. I certainly didn't expect ALTERNATE to take them out. That group stage loss coupled with their loss to Anexis in China makes me feel like fnatic is the most inconsistent of the teams in their peer group (mouz, M5, DTS, WinFakt, Anexis, Lions) since you don't know what you'll get from them.

fnatic face a tough task in getting out of this group, since Na`Vi are favourites over them on everything but nuke and M5 are more skilled than them. Even on nuke I think fnatic is one of the teams Na`Vi is capable of beating, even if it's still a tough matchup. fnatic's best chance is likely beating M5 again and coming out in second place I think. The problem then is that they run smack bang into the brick wall of SK which was shown no signs of moving in all of their matchups since Delpan switched sides. If they play SK in the playoffs they will lose. If they somehow shock the world and place top then I think they are slight favourites over eSahara and even with Anexis.


Group D
Mousesports
Lions swe
k1ck eSports Club
Earthquake

Mousesports - A star with serene surroundings

While 3rd at ESWC makes people want to scream "mouz is back!" I don't feel ready to go quite that far yet. The mouz team of 2010 was one I felt was capable of winning events with the right draw, while this mouz lineup would have to produce miracles to win the event I think. Still they have a nice group here to ensure they get out and into the playoffs. Their match with Lions will be tight since I think the skill level is equal, the teamplay is similar and tactically mouz only has a slight edge. What it will come down to is gob b's reading ability mid-round. If his game is on then he will guide mouz past Lions and into a matchup with ESC in the quarters.

mouz will take down ESC and then it's likely SK in the semis, which will be the end of their tournament I expect.

Lions swe - Battling to remain relevant as dark horses

I've found it hard to get excited over Lions for the last 2/3rds of 2011. With Gux in the lineup earlier in the year and the top tier so up for grabs I felt like they were so close to making some semi-finals in big events. They lost narrowly, Gux left and ever since they've been a shadow of their former selves. Sure they pushed AGAiN in Kiev at ASUS Summer, but they didn't win that series. I think threat is a good tactician but his style doesn't work against every type of opponent because his team is not very versatile in my opinion. They have a shot at winning this group but mouz's form has looked good so I still tip in the Germans' favour.

Once out of the groups they run into AGAiN and then I think it's a case of Lions needing to outskill the Poles. Their best chance is for AGAiN's skills from everyone not called NEO to be at a level where the likes of kHRYSTAL and niko can have a streaky run of big rounds to push it in the Swedes' favour. That can happen but ESWC looked kind of convincing for the Polish team, so why would you bank on it? Even if they won their group and got ESC in the first round they would only be marginal favourites I suspect. Those kind of 3rd vs. 4th domestic matchups are so tricky when you're talking about a country like Sweden.


Since the playoffs begin Saturday morning I also took a look at some of the potential playoff matchups I think will take place and my analysis on how they will go down in a piece entitled 'Promising playoff possibilities'.

Who do you expect to make it out of each group and why?

(Photographs copyright of fragbite and their respective holders)