As soon as the team list for the IEM VI Global Challenge New York was announced people were looking to SK Gaming as the favourites to take down the event, with mTw forced to bring ave out of retirement. With mTw being further weakened by minet's absence Group A has unraveled almost entirely, with UMX using a stand-in and a mix team under the name Black and Yellow replacing backfire.

All eyes are now very much on Group B as people look to see early how strong SK is as they face IEM VI Guangzhou 3rd place finishers WinFakt Fi in group play, as well as fRoD's CheckSix . With EG's new lineup untested internationally and mTw far from the well-honed tactical machine one has come to expect some will even be expecting Group B may hold both finalists, with WinFakt having a solid route to the final. Let's take a look at how the group breaks down and which matchups are likely for the semi-finals.




SK Gaming

SK are overwhelming favourites to take this group. The Swedes might have gone home from e-Stars and SEC without a title but they were only defeated by elite teams in those tournaments. There is nothing yet to suggest the panic button should be pushed and that SK will be taken down by WinFakt. The Finns are capable of taking a map from them but their recent record has not seen any upsets to suggest they will. There's also the fact that the weakened state of Group A actually means it might not matter even if SK were to be upset by the Finns.

For SK this group stage should be business as usual and I would expect them to emerge with three wins. Their game against WinFakt should be the closest but fans will likely still be tuning in for the CheckSix game to see if fRoD can put on a show against the world's most skilled team right now. It's unlikely anyone would have expected semXorah to upset the Swedes and now that they harbour two American ringers in their midst that seems to be a distant dream for anyone.


WinFakt Fi

IEM VI Guangzhou and SEC third places look really nice on WinFakt's resume but realistically there are asterisks next to them. In China the team took care of a weak TyLoo and a harmless XcN to advance to the semi-finals. There they met a fnatic side who breezed past them a little too easily. That was a matchup people were looking to to be competitive and the Swedes never seemed in danger of losing it, taking the series two maps to none. Left to beat up on surprise semi-finalists eFuture the Finns secured third place and a nice cheque.

At SEC WinFakt could potentially have booked themselves a finals spot, assuming they could have taken down M5, if they'd lost to AGAiN in the group stage on nuke. Instead they won the game, leading some to wonder if the Poles didn't eye up that very same "easier" path to the finals and decide to take a dive in the group stage. What is known is that in the semi-finals WinFakt met up with a hot Na`Vi team, fresh off a victory over SK, and put their IEM semi-final performance behind them by offering some solid resistance to the Ukrainian powerhouse.

They then benefited from another upset as unexpected semi-finalists Fear Factory took a pounding from them in another third place decider which wasn't close. What's key about these two placings is that the momentum of the Finnish team's improvement means many will be looking to them to give SK a good game in the group and then likely be favourites over either EG or mTw in the semi-final game. A win there and a finals spot would, despite the weakened field of this event, be another step along the path to challenging the likes of fnatic and mouz for a spot in the world's top 5-6 teams.

WinFakt showed some potential against Na`Vi but for them to prove they have taken that step up they will need matches against SK, bearing in mind the field at this tournament, which means making the final.

There's also the little matter of a revenge game between lurppis and the fRoD and Storm combo who put their votes towards having the former EG captain removed. fRoD is by far the team's biggest weapon so it will be interesting to see how lurppis attacks versus and defends against the AWP he previously relied upon to win games.


CheckSix

fRoD is one of the few North American players to legitimately have star power surrounding his name. He is not as effective as he once was in terms of being able to turn an entire game but he is still North America's finest sniper and arguably one of the top five AWP users in the world, though the latter is certainly open to debate nowadays.

Still his team might have gotten a little too much attention I feel. Looking at the rest of the lineup they have some unproven players, a Storm who will have a much heavier load to bear in this team and a leader, in Xp3, whose North American teams have never gotten past a certain level in international competition.

For this team maps will play a huge part, as on some they have a shot at an upset but on others they will be stomped by the European teams. Xp3 has been a successful proponent of a highly variable style of strat-calling in the past which has led to single map successes but it's hard to see how they could win a Bo3 unless it is against a fellow American team.

For this team their biggest strength is front and centre in the form of fRoD. If he can go off for big numbers and impact the opponents' terrorist halves then CheckSix has the opening to get an upset here or there. All the same I would expect them to finish third here and not make the playoffs.


semXorah

It would have been mildly interesting to see how this Brazilian team of second tier players could have done here against the likes of CheckSix but unfortunately visa problems struck and they have been forced to bring in two American players to fill their vacation spots. Those players are by no means international material and thus it's hard to even imagine them winning a single map, nevermind having a chance at the semi-finals. When it comes to Brazilian CS there are finally two teams again with some potential, Mandic and GameCrashers, but semXorah don't even seem to carry a novelty value sadly.

(Photographs copyright of fragbite)