The final day of the IEM V World Championship is upon us and today destiny's hand will reveal who hoists the silverware above their head in triumph, flush with money they'll receive at least one year down the line, and who will hang their hangs in despair at letting an opportunity at glory pass them up.

Today the reigning IEM World Champions Natus Vincere will defend their title against the 2007 champions and 2009 runnersup Frag eXecutors . When these two teams met in the third place decider at the European Finals FX handled the Ukrainians without significant resistance. This time around Na`Vi are revitalised and the Poles must take this title from them, they will not simply be handed it. Meanwhile FX is the team on the rise and after letting forth a volcano of emotions yesterday following their win over SK they feel like destiny calls only for them once more.

There there's the 3rd place decider as SK Gaming battle to prove they're one small step higher up on the chain of elite teams. They have their work truly cut out for them though facing perhaps the most well rounded team in Counter-Strike: mTw , and the Danes will still be feeling like this tournament should have been theirs.

Grand final
2:45pm CET Natus Vincere vs. Frag eXecutors

3rd place decider
12:30pm CET SK Gaming vs. mTw


Natus Vincere vs. Frag eXecutors

Nothing can stop it, it's my destiny

Na`Vi were supposed to be playing in the third place game now, least that's what all the numbers and omens seemingly told us. mTw were the would-be champions, just waiting to be crowned. Counter-Strike's most well rounded team had all the tools from the players with veteran savvy to the phenomenal individual talent to the tactical depth.

Facing against team here they should have been a favourite in the series, by however little or however much. Yet when they faced the Ukrainians they found out that their nightmare never ended while the Ukrainian dream still persists. mTw once more fell to their nemeses while Na`Vi kept alive the hopes of a second IEM World Championship title, back-to-back no less.

At their peak Na`Vi often only squeaked past mTw in epic games which saw them face their own elimination at times before pulling through. This time around the stage seemed to be set for that once more as the two teams moved to a third map, tuscan is the same one they had played a 30 round war on in the WCG Grand Final, but Na`Vi took all the air out of the Danes with a dominating 12:3 terrorist half.

tuscan is a map where huge terrorist runs are possible and mTw have certainly made that comeback before, in that very game I just mentioned, but this time around the story had been written anew and they were cast as the also-rans. When they made their comeback they tried to do it too much off of the back of standard play, the kind which had made won them so many rounds in this tournament, but when you're facing a must-win situation in which you cannot afford to make a single misstep while your opponent has many chances to seal the deal the most dangerous factor is that your opponent can choose a moment to make a risky and aggressive action which ends up derailing your efforts.

That is just what happened and despite mTw coming closer than many would have predicted, after the first half, Na`Vi found the moment to get aggressive and take the game in one fell swoop. Na`Vi showed us another level in 2011 which we had not seen since their awe-inspiring 2010 run.

In 2011 Na`Vi had been firmly in the 3rd-5th spot in the world rankings in terms of pure performance. Their star players had good games but also misfired at the wrong times. Their tacticians seemed unsure of his new approach and no longer could pick apart every opponent they faced the same way. Lastly their teamplay and motivation seemed depleted, no longer were they intensely fighting back in games but now sometimes they sat quietly losing rounds, only shouting in frustration at themselves and their team-mates. Yesterday there was none of that as Na`Vi brought individual performances to put them ahead and then won out with cohesive and impressive teamplay. Now the final awaits them, but so do Frag eXecutors.

I know how to beat you: by being myself

Despite everything I've seen from Na`Vi here, and certainly I have been impressed with their recovery across the different stages of the tournament, right now they face their biggest test in my opinion. It's not that FX is better than mTw but rather that FX plays Na`Vi better than mTw. In fact I think FX plays Na`Vi better than any other team, with the only comparison being the cyx-era mouz lineup. Even during Na`Vi's 2010 when they were beyond mere mortals on train I felt like the one test they had never faced was an in-form FX on that map. Of course that was in part because the Poles were struggling and unable to reach the stages Na`Vi were playing on. When that no longer became the case in the second half of 2010 my suspicions were confirmed as FX showed their style to be a hard counter to Na`Vi's own.

Despite Na`Vi being far and away the best team of the year FX were able to defeat them on train to keep the Ukrainians out of the top four at WEM. Na`Vi were still able to take them down at WCG and DreamHack to continue onto those titles but FX had shown themselves to be dangerous opponents for the champions. Counting from GameGune 2010 until this tournament FX is 4-4 with Na`Vi in maps won. The story is not as simple as Na`Vi winning and then FX taking over. Na`Vi threw us all off a bit by losing at WEM but still coming back to win DreamHack over all their elite opponents.

WEM was significant though because it was Na`Vi needing to win, having to win and desparately trying to win but being unable to on their best map. That's the force FX bring against certain playstyles. Perhaps their team is appropriately, though a little embarrassing named, because when they execute fully they have a very good chance against nearly every team in the world. They might have lost rounds to SK yesterday, they were mere inches from losing entirely, but when they put it all together they found themselves sitting in another IEM final.

Two IEM World Championship finals in two straight years is very impressive from Na`Vi but let's not forget that for the Poles it is two IEM World Championship finals in three years. But wait, you say, didn't they also win in 2007? Sure, but let's not get carried away in historical revisionism or ESL marketing spiel and forget that in 2007 there was no world finals/world championship, it was simply the final. At that time the IEM finals event was an event more on par with an event like WEM now or an Arbalet Cup Europe. It wasn't at the same stature as majors like WCG or ESWC. That's simply the way it is so let's not get too carried away. It's not like we need to either, FX still have won so many majors that their record puts them far out ahead in the lead, with few following behind.

So for FX there is a definite feeling of destiny about this event. After battling through the most disappointing period of their career in early 2010, without capitulating to the public's mewling demands that they replace pasha, they have rediscovered themselves as one of the world's elite teams. Not only have their results gone up and up but they have integrated pasha to the extent that on some levels they are a better team than they ever were with LUq, despite the high esteem I hold his play within that team at and the contributions I think he made.

Where in their "golden five" days they were a side who excelled at one event, taking the glory of a major title, only to fall and flop at the next now they are a well-oiled machine which may not always be capable of hitting it's top speed but can always produce enough power and force to push them far in tournaments. Fx doesn't lose to bad teams now, they don't even lose to merely good teams. The teams who beat them are either elite teams or dark horses on fire.

The second half of 2010 saw FX take a medium sized title at e-Stars, admittedly with no Na`Vi in attendance, and then plenty of top 3/4 placings to cement them as having returned to elite status. Their game in Kiev against mTw in the playoffs confirmed to me that they were fully back amongst the favourites to win major events and their play here in Hannover has not disuaded me of this opinion.

The decision, the champion and the reasons

So who is going to win? You all yell, hyped to gills and ready to explode with anticipation for a final seemingly already written up as a classic. Will Na`Vi live their dream once more and repeat as champions, yet again doing something that no team has ever done in professional Counter-Strike history, or will FX return to the summit of the mountain they fondly remembering climbing so many times before and add another major title to their stunning resumes? I won't be coy with you: I think FX will win the IEM V World Championship today.

When I break it down further it first comes down to the style matchup, one of the most overlooked aspects of Counter-Strike competition in my opinion. Stylistically I think the two teams matchup to make for an exciting game but also one in which FX hold the upper hand, though not drastically. The key for FX is that they must not get drawn into a tactical chess game with Zeus and Na`Vi. If FX try too hard to be chameleons and change their colours to match Na`Vi's then this might be the Ukrainians day of glory.

Na`Vi haven't shown themselves to be at their 2010 form in terms of preparation and adaptation just yet but I don't think FX have enough experience playing that dangerous game to pull it off just yet. In many ways it is the most volatile approach but it is also one which carries its own benefits, hence why Na`Vi and mTw play it. By changing your style, when you're capable of playing many, you can keep giving yourself the slight advantage at each turn which adds up to an overall victory. This is not FX CS and I would hope for the sake of the game that they don't show up thinking it's what they must have to win this final.

FX CS is beautiful to watch when it is shown in its most vibrant and intense colours. It's decisive, smelling blood and seizing upon the victim. It's dramatic as the Poles are one of the best teams of all time at working both a numbers disadvantage, winning 2v4s and 2v3s, as well as an economical advantage, becoming both legendary and infamous for winning weak buys and rounds in which only one player has a real weapon. Then you can throw in those overwhelming terrorist rushes which roll over anyone who doesn't put up a shrewd and stiff resistance. Added all together you have one of the most devastating styles of CS. It doesn't matter that teams know what FX are going to do, it matters if they can stop it.

The blind keymakers

Na`Vi's ceh9 told me yesterday that "for all their locks, we have the keys" which did make me smile a little. I had expected, since he is often quite honest in such matters, that ceh9 might concede that FX would go in as the favourites and that they're style was the most difficult for Na`Vi. Instead he seemed only to agree that it was a hard matchup but remained stoicly confident that Na`Vi were still set to become champions of IEM a second time. That kind of confidence does spark a little fire in me for this match and make me feel like even if FX wins that Na`Vi can make this a war and ensure the Poles leave with casualties.

It's not that Na`Vi can't win, it's not that Na`Vi won't win and it's not that I don't want Na`Vi to win. Personally I pull for certain teams in big matches, it's natural to enjoy one style over another or to feel a faint yearning that one team pulls through, and I would never pretend it was otherwise. However I always appreciate whichever team won if it is a good game. If the team I like loses but they play very good CS but lose to a team playing even better CS then I am still happy and congratulate the winners.

When you consider CS matches I believe you need to use two approaches: analysis and intuition. Your analysis consists of thinking of past games, reflecting on how the teams matchup and looking at the skill differential. This will give you a good basis for odds on each team for the victory. Intuition comes from within. Some will say it is the sum total of the mind's powers, inclusive of those we cannot always access consciously. Others may chalk it up as some quasi-mystical link to the universe, fate or destiny. It's unimportant for these purposes which it is but rather that it exists in some capacity and can be accessed. Your intuition comes from within and calls with its own unique voice. Separate it from your wishful thinking, who you want to win, and just listen to who you feel will win. Now you will see why I have picked FX.

When your intuition says one thing and your analysis leans towards it also then you can make a firm decision with a clean conscience. My intuition tells me FX will prevail today.

Don't count us out

Still didn't I say Na`Vi could and may win? Na`Vi are a phenomenon in the world of Counter-Strike I think some have still not fully appreciated in all their facets. It's not just that this team came along and won one or two titles and showed that Ukrainian/CIS teams could play. They came along and they won nearly all the titles, in a manner nobody had ever done before, and they showed themselves to be the best team in world and one of the greatest of all time. If you ask me to name the top 5 CS teams ever Na`Vi are going to be in there, as the old FX lineup will be also.

Na`Vi can win this game if they master themselves in the way they did in 2010. They need contirbutions from everyone skillwise. markeloff must take every shot he can and hit many with the same confidence as he did all year long. Edward must play like the best #2 player in the entire world and punish FX with multi-kill rounds over and over on his sites. ceh9 must be the demigod he can be at alley on train and vitally he must come up big on inferno. starix needs to show us all again that with the AWP his aim might not look amazing but the results can be astonishing in their impact. Finally, and in my opinion most crucially, Zeus must tie all of these factors together with a shrewd approach on the terrorist side.

Most teams play a lot of individual rounds on CT, relying on their form to get them wins, but the terrorist side is where Zeus can turn this series. He needs to first of all have a solid plan going into this, at least two setups per map which can be counted on to grind out a round 55-60% of the time in situations where other rounds are working 0-10% of the time. On top of that Zeus's mid-game sense must be flawless, he needs to be reading when to pull back and when to push forwards on the crucial 2v2 2v3 3v2s that Na`Vi will face.

All in all I think that's where this game will end up being decided: in the 2v2s the 2v3s and the 3v2s. Both teams are incredible in these scenarios, maybe the best two ever, and both seem to enjoy the way the mind game works out in those moments. Na`Vi must bring all of that to beat FX's best. Then again, if FX can't bring their best obviously Na`Vi's requirements scale down proportionally. Personally I don't hope for either team to win as much as I hope for a legendary series to remember in years to come. Odds, in case you're wonder, I'm setting at 60%-40% FX-Na`Vi.


12:30pm CET SK Gaming vs. mTw

Who cares, why would we?

The thid place game I won't say too much about, there's not really that much which requires saying. I will first address the general feeling that third place games either matter as much as any other series or that they don't matter at all since both teams don't care any more. Neither extreme is true or reflective of reality and here's why. On the first account, that they matter as much, it is impossible in my opinion. It's not that teams don't want to win or won't try 100%, it's that they can't. You simply can't summon the same amount of fire to play in those games as a series which could get you further towards the championship. We're not talking on a conscious level here, subconsciously you can't inspire in yourself the same drive.

In fact that's where an interesting factor comes into this series. I think mTw is the favourite to win, in terms of style and tactical approach, but I also think mTw lost the most from their semi-final. mTw genuinely will, and should, feel like they not only lost their semi-final but a title itself. If they'd beaten Na`Vi I'd have put them as slim favourites over FX in the final and more substantial favourites over SK. So mTw not only lost a shot at the final, they lost a trophy which could have been theirs. So realistically I think they could be the most depressed or disinterested team coming into this semi-final.

Still hungry

SK Gaming on the other hand had their hearts broken because they were walking through a dream where they bring a new player and waltz to the final and win the World Championship. That dream was always a little unlikely but by getting to the semi-finals they proved their worth and that they are legitimately knocking on the door to be considered an elite team again. By winning this third place decider they'd show everyone that they deserve to be considered such even sooner. It would be another step, albeit quite a small one, up the ladder. Also a series win over mTw is a nice feather for anyone's cap.

On the other matter, that these teams don't try, that's definitely not true. No top teams wants to lose to another, especially in quick succession after an already disappointing loss in the last round. These teams will try, they'll fight and they'll go for the throat. They just might not be able to go 100% and so it might end up being a battle of 90% vs. 80%. mTw are my favourites on paper and intuitively but SK certainly should be the more hungry to take another step here.