Six teams remain in Hannover and now four of them will battle for two semi-final spots where they will face SK Gaming and mTw respectively. Thursday will be judgement day for four teams while the aforementioned two will look to assess their future competition.

Can the Ukrainians of Natus Vincere keep their quest to repeat as IEM World Champions alive or can the plucky compLexity br find a way into the top 4? Will Frag eXecutors make it back-to-back IEM semi-finals or will the European Champions impress once more?

Quarter-finals
9:10am Frag eXecutors vs. fnatic
11:50am compLexity br vs. Natus Vincere


Quarter-final #1: Frag eXecutors vs. fnatic

Prove you're that good

There was a time when a matchup between these two teams was the premiere face-off in professional Counter-Strike and guaranteed you sparks and excitement. It not only promised you two legendary teams fighting to the death for titles but it also provided you with a head-to-head between, in my opinion, two of the top three individual players of all time as neo and f0rest clashed. Things have changed as time has passed and now this matchup feels like a proving ground for both teams. One of them will leave disappointed as both come in with plenty still left to prove to themselves and the rest of the CS world.

fnatic come in as the IEM V European Champions and not only chase confirmation that they are the world's #1 team, which might come if they are crowned World Champions here, but also to prove that Kiev wasn't a fluke and that they are legitimately that good when it counts. In Kiev they got to skip the quarter-finals and instead look on as two other teams battled extra maps to reach them. This time they're squarely stuck in a dogfight to win the privelege of facing fellow Swedes SK Gaming in the semi-final.

There's no doubt fnatic will be fired up for this game. Firstly it's FX and they're one of the teams that fnatic didn't get a chance to face in Kiev but who were impossibly close to facing the Swedes in the final. fnatic beat Na`Vi and mTw in Kiev but they didn't get to test their mettle against the Polish titans. As FX's games against Na`Vi from the latter part of 2010 onwards have shown they are a unique prospect for any team and bring strengths in areas few other teams can boast about. That makes them very dangerous for even the world's #1 team, regardless of either team's form. A series win over FX is a big feather in a fledling top team's cap.

Secondly fnatic were all but eliminated from this tournament as everyone seemingly expected redCode to roll over and die to Lions, only for the South Koreans to win their best map and help fnatic into the next round. fnatic surely know they weren't too far from being sat in the stands until the South Koreans saved their asses, a fact they seemed only too aware of as they thanked redCode after that game. fnatic not only need to prove to themselves they should be in the playoffs but also the rest of the field.

Thirdly fnatic want to get to a series against mTw again. That would be prime real estate to prove a lot of doubters wrong. Another series win over mTw would confirm that Kiev was no fluke, fnatic are an elite team, and what's more it would put out of many people's mind the fact that mTw were a single kill from winning that final and writing their own story.

I'm not sure, but I think so

FX come into this semi-final seeming a little out of sorts. For a team who were seemingly guaranteed a top 2 placing in the group once it was drawn they seemed unduly distressed by their thrashing at the hands of mTw. Everyone and their grandmother had to know the top spot in the group would come down to FX and mTw, what's more everyone knows the problems FX have had on inferno in the past but even so the manner in which the Poles lost seemed to get them irked. FX is a team who burn with an intense flame and when they are winning and confident that fire torches opponents and fuels them to win close games. When they are losing and their confidence in each other is shaken they turn on each other and roast their fellow player until only cinders are left.

This time around FX didn't really seem to be doing either. After their loss to mTw they seemed simply dejected. Perhaps they wondered if their efforts to improve on inferno, which had seemed considerable and impressive in Kiev, had all been for naught against the world's best anti-stratting team. Perhaps they felt as though their march back into the top 2 teams in the world had been prematurely scheduled and they were slipping back into being very good but not great. Good enough to play in semi-finals but not within reach of the trophies, as had been the case in the last part of 2010 despite their e-Stars Seoul win earlier in the year to break their struggle.

As kuben explained in his post-group interview he is a bit scared of playing fnatic. The two teams have not met with the Swedes in this incarnation and perhaps facing the unknown is not where FX want to be right now. Nevertheless fnatic are the gauntlet laid in front of them and they must beat one set of Swedes to reach another.

You think too much... or not enough

On the surface my enduring FX theory tells me I should pick against FX in this series because the Poles have always shown their hand early in terms of their level. In the past if they were playing strong, confident and effective CS then you would see it in the group stage or early in a playoff bracket and their motor would be ready to hit top speed. Then again I'm still not 100% sure that theory isn't more suited to the "golden five" era of LUq and all those world championship level major victories. This era of FX has been infinitely more consistent in placing top 3 since they integrated pasha into the lineup successfully. So something tells me not to put too much stock in that theory at this moment.

Secondly there's the fnatic riddle which might tease at being close to unravelled but isn't necessarily as simple to call as it might appear. I listed reasons why fnatic likely wouldn't be as good as in Kiev in my Group B preview and the group stage at this tournament certainly seemed to confirm a lot of those suspicions, gut feelings and educated guesses. Yet it certainly doesn't inspire confidence in me knowing FX are even a little hesistant or tentative going into the matchup. I like FX best when they are brazen, bold and ballsy going against the toughest dogs in the junkyard and knowing they can bang with anyone. FX is a lot more effective and exciting when they're throwing their best haymaker at someone to take them out early as opposed to when they are playing a waiting man's game and testing their opponents with a smattering of jabs.

Then again fnatic aren't too confident themselves if their faces told any story on day 1. From their emphatic loss to SK Gaming onwards, where they watched their ex-team-mate waltz all over them in the kind of performance that used to win them games, fnatic had a troubled look on their faces and knew they were going to have to put in a hard day's graft to get out of their group. When they found themselves being knocked around by Na`Vi the Swedes seemed all but hopeless, with SK and Lions both playing the two worst teams in the group at the same time. Still one must feel like fnatic took a little breather after making it out of the group. That fnatic luck was still there and the universe had once more conspired to see that black and orange in the playoffs of a Counter-Strike tournament.

The old lion survives for a reason

So the dilemma becomes not who will come bearing the biggest and sharpest swords with the best war cries but rather who has the most rusty and depleted armoury and will try their best to mask their nervous glances. At this moment my decision is in favour of FX to win this series. Before the tournament began my intuition would have led me to odds of 65-35 for FX over fnatic. With group stages out of the way which cannot be unseen I find those numbers coming down to 55-45 FX over fnatic.

On a strategical level I feel like FX is not the kind of matchup which is favourable for fnatic. FX offer fnatic danger at every turn with their decisive aggression and their confidence that on their day they are a great team who have titles to prove what can be done. fnatic seem to be more at ease playing teams whose strength is tactical versatility, drawing their cerebral opponents into a risky game of style vs. style where the opponent changes the way they play enough that fnatic locks onto a weakness and crowbars it open for as long as it will stay from slamming back shut. That worked for them in Kiev against Na`Vi and mTw, who have the two best strategical minds in CS.

FX are more rigid in their style and either opponents come with their own strong style which can smash against that of the Poles or the red and white men force the opponent to adapt in search of an answer to their aggression. So if FX are on their game I see them taking this series without it getting too close. If FX are off their game and self-doubt rears its indecisive head then I can see it being a full three maps with FX even giving up a map without enough resistance.

Still FX feel like they will win this series. A benefit which plays against the my FX theory is that this tournament sees each series a day apart, meaning there FX don't have to win three or four series in one day and use up their emotional resources. They can afford to blow through Thursday's stores without sparing a drop, knowing they can rest and recouperate that night for the next battle. Their Kiev form may yet prove a little rich in comparison to their overall market value but FX still seem like a team destined to battle for titles. Something tells me that destiny will carry them through here and perhaps even into the final, how sure I am of the latter point will depend on the volume of their performance here.


compLexity br vs. Natus Vincere

I want you to hit me as hard as you can

On the surface this matchup should be laughable, an easy win for the legends from the Ukraine. Na`Vi win, end of story, show's over, nothing to see here folks and we all move onto licking our lips at the prospect of another Na`Vi-mTw war. Only it's not quite that open and shut, even though I will say up front I am picking Na`Vi and I feel quite sure they will win. Odds for the Ukrainians? I'll go with 80-20 for Na`Vi here.

Best way to break this one down is to look at it from the perspective of the underdogs and first of all ask what coL.br must do to win this series. Well firstly they have to hit Na`Vi with everything they have from the opening bell and not let up until they're in the semi-final. If they can't do that then Na`Vi will win the war of stamina, adaptability and guts. coL.br may be minus one legendary sniper but they have one in the making filling his boots. When FalleN gets hot strange things happen to the matrix of Counter-Strike and suddenly good teams find themselves on the back foot.

Surrounding the young star sniper are four players who still have MiBR blood coursing through their veins. For coL to win this series they need to do their best MiBR impression and play to the strengths of that team. MiBR had their one moment where they could reasonably have been in the conversation for best team in the world, still that moment was brief and instead they would long occupy a slot where they were dark horses for tournaments but aside from occasional victories over the elite teams not solid enough to make it through to another major title.

Their weaknesses were their strengths as they were the team most defined by their momentum and game sense. When MiBR got hot they were capable of blowing teams out of the server with a flurry of round wins or evening up what had previously been a drubbing in the space of no time. When they weren't hot MiBR could be smashed to pieces without a whisper of protest and they could camp out rounds without even being able to plant once overtaking the site. coL needs that kind of MiBR momentum to push past Na`Vi before the Ukrainians know what hit them. On top of that they need that game sense to know when and how to make their style work.

In coL's favour is that Na`Vi are strongest against teams they know and have studied. I'm not sure Na`Vi's game plan is perfectly refined against this style of team yet, though it may not matter as Na`Vi's own natural style is significantly superior in all regards. There's also the fact Na`Vi have slowed their game down recently, matching them to coL's snail-like pace at times. If Na`Vi stick to that game plan they may find this series much closer than they would like.

I'm not the man I used to be, but I'm still a man

Now let's talk about Na`Vi since I think they are going to win this series and move onto writing another chapter in a legendary rivalry with the Danes. Na`Vi have been weaker than 2010, that doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to deduce, but that is not the same as Na`Vi being weak. In Kiev they were weak and their problems were there for all to see. Losing their best map, train, over and over as well as being unable to summon any fire against fnatic left many thinking Na`Vi's days as the #1 team were done. That's not necessarily true, even if there is some grain of truth behind it.

Na`Vi have shown improvement since Kiev and in the group stage here they have progressively gotten their act together and shown signs of still being an elite team. They lost to Lions in their second game but after that they were under the hammer and they used that pressure to grind out a place in the playoffs. Against fnatic they ran rampant and never looked like losing to the team who had put them away in Kiev three times. Against SK Na`Vi looked set to once more lose train before remembering how to play elite level CT defense on train and bring the game right back to a tie, even with some deagles needing to fire true on the last round. The elite teams in Counter-Strike can be defined, in one degree, by their ability to grind out rounds regardless of their form.

Na`Vi have a lot of answers to give to show they have rediscovered their magic but they also have a bracket which five months ago would have seen then assured of a finals spot. Na`Vi will get it going in this series and even if it takes three maps, which it may not if dust2 isn't drawn in the first two, they'll get there with a little room to spare all in all.


So there you have it: Na`Vi will move on to face mTw while FX will show fnatic that even if both teams have not been great so far the Poles still deserve to be considered the elite team of the two.

Who do you think will reach the semi-finals?