The first Quake Live IEM World Championship was exciting. It was the game's debut at the grand finale of an IEM season, and proved a worthy culmination to what had been a great year of Quake that was pretty much dominated by Shane 'rapha' Hendrixson. The American continued his trend of winning by overcoming Anton 'Cooller' Singov in the final 3-1, a game that was a lot closer than it reads.

This time around, things are up in the air. Alexei 'Cypher' Yanushevsky may be the consensus number one right now, despite his loss to Cooller at the IEM European Championship Finals, and Kevin 'Strenx' Baeza is on the verge of stardom. Maciej 'av3k' Krzykowski is not only Cypher's team-mate but also one of the few people to hold multiple victories over him, much like rapha. This equates to a massive formula to which there is no answer, and any of those five could walk away with $8,500 by Sunday.

Let's start by looking at group A.

Av3k and Strenx are the sure advancers, but picking the third is difficult. Yes, group B is the group of death, but group A is the 'little league group of death.' Tim 'DaHanG' Fogarty, Pelle 'Fazz' Söderman, and Marcel 'k1llsen' Paul aren't massive names yet still have the capability to upset both each other and both of the certain advancers, and they're looking to do just that.

Who advances under av3k and Strenx?

k1llsen has failed to build off of his IEM gamescom win back in August, only collecting a third place at DreamHack Winter while slumping elsewhere. Maybe home advantage will help him out like many claimed it did at gamescom, but commitment is always an issue surrounding the German considering his position as a father. All he needs to do is take each game as it comes, and utilize the ferocious aim that tore through gamescom to its full potential.

Strenx has been on a bit of a run lately. Not only did he perform exceptionally well at BEAT IT and DreamHack, he did exactly the same thing at the IEM European Championship Finals, and even took down Cypher en route to a third place finish. It wouldn't be foolish to expect him to throw a spanner in the works of the knockout stages, nor to actually defeat someone there.

It's simply a question of his attitude towards his opponent, though the last time he revealed something like that, he beat Cypher (for the record, he said that it's impossible for him to beat Cypher).

A victory for av3k doesn't look likely here. His loss to Cooller was uninspiring, but av3k is always a tough challenge to pass thanks to his aggressive, off-putting style, which may still throw players off.

The perils of group B

Group B is like a completely different universe when compared to group A. Putting the three obvious advancers in order is next to impossible.

The way Quake Live works is like this: Cypher generally beats Cooller, Cooller and rapha have close games, and rapha beats Cypher. Where's the rhythm in that? How is it possible to predict what could happen?

It's not. It all comes down to preparation, form, and good fortune on the day, because at the snap of a finger any one of the three could roll through the entire tournament.

Cypher may be the number one right now, but Cooller's IEM European Championship Finals win was impressive. But was it just a one off? It was his first major win in Quake Live, whereas both Cypher and rapha have experienced that multiple times on multiple stages. Yes, Cooller came close at the last IEM World Championships, but he came close far too many times in 2010. His drive is probably at its highest ever right now, and sealing two wins in a row would do him and his fanbase the world of good.

Cypher and rapha need wins, and expect them to both come leaping out of the gates, despite rapha's famed group stage jitters.

Those three will advance, though don't be surprised to see a shift in placements due to a map loss or two, especially to Sebastian 'Spart1e' Siira and Dan 'dandaking' De Sousa. Underestimation is always present, it merely depends on how severely one takes it.

Who's going to win? No idea. I, personally, am anticipating a Cypher-rapha final after thrilling semi-final encounters involving Cooller, Cypher, rapha, and Strenx, with both games being nailbiters. rapha's dominant mental game will massively help him in the final, but everyone is familiar with the crazy stuff Cypher can pull off.

Follow the tournament all week long via SK Gaming's coverage page.

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Cypher photograph copyright of ESL / Julia Christophers