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e-Stars voting frenzy - 25,000 votes were fake
Written by stormm in scene 6 months ago (317 comments) | Tagged in: e-star seoul vote
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The final days of the e-Stars voting frenzy have brought some phenomenal jumps involving emuLate, SK Gaming, Roccat and other teams. The number of votes out of thin air has risen to 25,015.

It all started a month ago, when e-Stars opened the voting. Doing well in the fan vote would be worth 50% of a trip to Korea, the other 50% being last year's results and the jury's opinion.

During the first three weeks, Fnatic and Meet Your Makers were leading in the vote whilst the others swapped places several times.

Strange things began to happen with less than two weeks to go in the vote. The French team emuLate! managed to jump from a rather bad situation to the very top, leading the community wonder just how good their advertising campaign was.

Fans of many teams used the following method of showing their support:



But considering that you had to vote for two or three teams and not one, 6,305 votes were found missing and emuLate's leap looked very suspect.

Things began moving very rapidly from there, as on April 19, the poll for e-Star Seoul 2008 had another mass vote spam for nearly every team. Things got out of control.

On April 18, SK Gaming and Roccat gained 5,222 and 8,310 votes, respectively. The vote proportion rule (you had to vote for 2 or 3 teams) could not be used to determine whether those votes were fake votes or simply mass votes. But it was still suspicious.

Then, on April 20, within under two hours, emuLate's account rose by 16,895. To put this into perspective, this means that there were 2.68 votes cast for emuLate each second!

The French team's surplus also outnumbered the surplus of all the other teams by 12,634, which means that at least this many votes were fake (most likely, many more than that).

But it is not just emuLate with suspicious votes, ones that were mass-added in a short period of time. emuLate, are first in the list, with an approximate number of 37,000 votes, Roccat are following with 9,900 votes and SK is third with 6,850 votes. The other teams are not that far behind and the smallest number of suspicious votes is with for MYM who only have ~1,300 spam votes.

This does not mean that all of those votes were fake votes, but it definitely prompts to ask questions.

emuLate clearly leads the poll with a total of 24,770 votes that were proven to be fake votes. We arrived at this number with the assumption that everyone voted for two, not three teams. Assuming that 80% of voters picked three teams in the poll, this number almost doubles.

This does not mean that emuLate were the only team that got the help of an invisible hand. SK Gaming has 245 votes that were fakes. Other teams had suspicious leaps as well, but with the screenshots we have, we were not able to prove beyond doubt that ill play was involved.

Regardless of how this ends and what e-Stars does or does not do about it, everyone could agree - this poll was a bad idea.

Statistics:

April 17 22:30:47 CET
emuLate! - 18,511 votes (+2,432)
Fnatic - 15,367 votes (+3,399)
MYM - 16,103 votes (+2,758)
mousesports - 7,664 votes (+1,521)
mTw - 7,939 votes (+1,599)
SK - 9,352 votes (+2,072)
Alternate - 7,555 votes (+1,094)
Roccat - 8,883 votes (+1,436)

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April 19 15:07:35 CET
Roccat - 17,193 votes (+8,310)
all other teams - 101,889 (+19,398)

emuLate! - 23,760 votes (+5,249)
Fnatic - 15,822 votes (+455)
MYM - 16,995 votes (+892)
mousesports - 10,745 votes (+3,081)
mTw - 9,832 votes (+1,893)
SK - 14,574 votes (+5,222)
Alternate - 10,161 votes (+2,606)

Growth margin:
Roccat: 17,193 - 8,883 = 8310
other teams: 101,889 - 82,491 = 19,398

Growth for other teams vs. growth for Roccat: 8310 - 19398 = -11088

Assuming that Roccat's voters all voted for two teams only: 8,310*2 = 16,620
19,398 - 16,620 = +2,778 votes left.

Assuming that Roccat's voters all voted for three teams: 8,310*3 = 24,930
24,930 - 19,398 = 5,532 votes missing

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April 19 16:52 CET
emuLate! - 40,655 votes (+16,895)
all other teams: 99,583 (+4,261)

Fnatic - 17,831 votes (+2,009)
MYM - 17,088 votes (+93)
mousesports - 10,786 votes (+41)
mTw - 9,883 votes (+51)
SK - 14,616 votes (+42)
Alternate - 10195 votes (+34)
Roccat - 19184 votes (+1,991)

Growth margin:
emuLate!: 40,655 - 23,760 = 16,895
other teams: 99,583 - 95,322 = 4,261

Growth for other teams vs. growth for emuLate: 16,895 - 4,261 = 12,634 votes missing

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April 20 12:11:26 CET

emuLate! - 50,878 votes (+10,233)
all other teams - 103,985 (+4,402)

fnatic - 18,269 votes (+438)
MYM - 18,394 votes (+1,306)
mousesports - 11,249 votes (+463)
mTw - 10,623 votes (+740)
SK - 15,032 votes (+416)
Alternate - 10,900 votes (+705)
Roccat - 19,518 votes (+334)

Growth margin:
emuLate!: 50,878 - 40,655 = 10,233
other teams: 103,985 - 99,583 = 4,402

Growth for other teams vs. growth for emuLate: 10,233 - 4,402 = 5,831 votes missing

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April 21 - End of voting
SK - 17,264 votes (+2,232)
all other teams - 144,536 (+4705)

emuLate! - 51,262 votes (+384)
Fnatic - 18,732 votes (+463)
MYM - 19,741 votes (+1347)
mousesports - 11,905 votes (+656)
mTw - 11,422 votes (+799)
Alternate - 11,430 votes (+530)
Roccat - 20,044 votes (+526)

Growth margin on April 20 18:16 CET:
SK: 17,205 - 15,032 = 2,173
other teams: 141,759 - 139,831 = 1,928

Growth for other teams vs. growth for SK Gaming: 2,173 - 1,928 = 245 votes missing

Missing votes:
emuLate! - 24,770
SK - 245

suspicious spam votes (added in rapid succession):
emuLate!: 13,000
Fnatic: 1,800
MYM: 1,300
mousesports: 2,600
mTw: 1,700
SK: 6,605
Alternate: 2,500
Roccat: 9,900

Total: 39,405



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